USA. 46.966 44.649 43.198 44.198. 179.011
Russia. 45.433 45.566 43.432 41.599. 176.03
GBR. 44.865. 42.066 41.699. 43.2. 171.83
CHN. 44.698 43.298 42.033 42.133 172.162
ITA 44.024 40.699 41.699 42.465 168.887
JPN 43.933 41.699 41.599 42.766 169.997
CAN 43.8 41.999 41.516 41.266 168.581
NED 42.116 42.133 43.232 41.766. 169.247
I also worked out that without Biles, USA would stand marginally behind Russia. A hypothetical stance I know.
USA B. 46.099 43.049 42.232 43.633 175.013
I thought it would be interesting to work out the execution scores standings. These show an even bigger change, with NED leaping into third place from eighth, ITA moving up from fifth to fourth, GBR finishing fifth, and China dropping all the way to eighth. Maybe somebody else wants to work out the scores from ninth downwards to see what the true standings are ...
Of course China did have a very bad day. I worked out Romania's E score and it was less than 3 points below China whose D scores saved the day for them. I didn't see Romania's routines, but their e scores on uneven bars in particular seem brutal. They competed in the first subdivision; surely scores crept upwards especially towards the later part of the second day. But that can't account for it all. Mistakes are mistakes but this looks like a hatchet job to me.
USA. 28.566. 25.749. 25.532 26.066. 105.913
RUS 27.433. 26.266 25.532. 24.699. 103.93
GBR. 27.465. 24.066 25.166. 24.9. 101.597
CHN. 27.232. 23.332. 24.033 24.033. 98.63
ITA 27.624. 23.899 25.299 25.432 102.254
JPN. 27.333. 24.333 24.599. 25.266 101.531
CAN. 27.233. 24.266. 24.233. 24.766. 100.498
NED 26.816. 25.233. 26.032. 25.274 103.355
A calculator in my hands is a dangerous thing. E&OE.
With thanks to Gymcastic for the picture of the scoreboard.
It is interesting how close the teams would be if you take Biles out of the equation, or if you put Mustafina back in. Aliya probably would have added about 3 points to Russia's total from prelims.
ReplyDeleteRio TFs could be more exciting than I had originally thought...
Funny how you want to take Biles out for the US and put in Mustafina for Russia. Hypothetical I know, but you guys need to sort out your praises when it's due. Even with major mistakes from the US they faired pretty well. It has nothing to do with mustafina being out.
DeleteI don't think anyone is suggesting we are damping down praise for the Americans by the way! It has been a long time since the Russian team had all of its top competitors healthy at Worlds.
DeleteI actually think that Komova is challenging Mustafina for the top Russian spot especially if she can regain her floor.
I don't think Mustafina would have increased the team score by as much as three. She would just have given them more depth everywhere, matching Tutkhalyan on vault, perhaps giving a little extra on bars, more assurance on beam and then on floor - hopefully - adding about a point. Russia has really made great strides everywhere except floor - and the jury is out as to their reliability in finals. We will find out how they are doing there on Tuesday.
Romania counted four falls on UB.
ReplyDeleteI doubt mustafina can add 3 points to their preliminary scores. That's like saying biles can add 9 additional points for the US if she hits all her connections.
ReplyDeleteSomebody commented about the number of Romania falls on bars, and the number China suffered. I hit the delete button on my phone by mistake - please could you recomment? Apologies?
ReplyDeleteHave you seen the ROM E scores on bars? In the 6s!
Conclusion for this theory: Russia will win Team Final if each 3 of them hits their routine just like qualification. Biles need to out of competition and Raisman need to fall from bar and Douglas from Beam.
ReplyDeleteWel, how about increase difficulty and better execution and challenge USA just like 2010 and 2012. 2012 was really knocked out though
One question is did the Russian girls feel more responsible because Mustafina was not there?
ReplyDeleteThey can be happy with beam and bars, where they could place 3 gymnasts in the first 8. Of course only 2 will compete.
Paseka has been a surprise. She has become so consistent!
Anybody has an explanation about Russian floor?
Russian coaches should do everything they can to improve vault (Kharenkova and Spiri) and do something about floor. What's the problema with floor? Anybody can explain?
I wish somebody could explain. It is heartbreaking to see the general decline in the quality of floor exercises. I wonder if in general the girls just do not have the right tough physique to combine aggressive tumbling on the floor with great technique and lightness on the bars ... The injury rate bothers me too. Any thoughts?
DeleteThis is a key question by the way, not just in Russia but internationally. Thanks for raising it.
The Dutch team currently combines less difficult tumbling with very difficult and beautiful dance elements that are well executed and add up to competitive D scores. Could be a road to consider for the Russians; however, Nastia Liukin was a masterful bar worker that found a floor routine that worked for her. I think it's a matter of a.) improving overall conditioning for all the Russian athletes b.) focusing on finding skills that work the Code to best advantage that the athletes can execute well.
DeleteI agree about the conditioning! Although I do not think they are as bad as many people say - they are still second in the world, after all.
DeleteNastia Liukin was competing in a different era - and there is the rub. Floor was a different kettle of fish even only if it was a few years ago.
What the NED girls have done is terrific - just think how much better they would do if the Code were more appreciative of their artistry. Mustafina used a similar approach last year - Omelianchik wrote a journal article about the idea. But without top level acro it is difficult to tally the very highest d scores. I hope that Sanne and Lieke do well in their finals.
I was a little confused by the e-scores in the qualifying rounds. I know viktoria komova normally has wonderful execution on bars but in qualifying she made two obvious errors and yet ended up with a higher e score than both Daria and Maria Pseaka ? Also I think her difficulty on bars was only 6.5 , do you think she will have higher d score for uneven bars finals ?
ReplyDeleteMustafina can of course add 3 points to Russia Qualification.
ReplyDeleteLet's take Daria out, regardless of her UB big score. Her Qual score is 54+, and it's beyond doubt that Musty can bring 57+ score tbh. That said, I am not trying to say that Russia can challege US for gold even with Aliya in the team.
I hope she can challenge biles individually in AA though, with VT: 5.8, UB: 7.0, BB: 6.3 and FX: 6.3, which is possible to her. QE do you think she can bring back this high UB d score?
Spiridonova's VT & FX scores were not counted in the team total, so Mustafina would add less than the difference in their AA scores.
ReplyDelete