Russian team prospects and a proliferation of question marks

Putting aside worries about injuries, we have seen this year how the deselection of certain gymnasts from competition rosters can influence competition outcomes and delay the often simplistic conclusions we gym fans want to draw.  Komova's lack of appearance on the senior front leaves us completely befuddled and Mustafina's sudden withdrawal from the European Championships beheaded Russian, European and, arguably, World gymnastics.  We are unsure whether these two gymnasts can possibly make it back to their former level and Dementyeva now appears as the poster girl of the forthcoming Russian Cup competition.  However, she might as well have a giant question mark over her head for all the credit she is given for her achievements.

Similarly, the recent EYOF was without its top contender (Anastasia Grishina) and her closest domestic rival (Anastasia Sidorova), leaving us wondering how the results would have been affected if the Russian team had included those we consider to be close to unbeatable on the European stage.  Larissa Iordache, the strong leader of the European junior field at this competition, will now suffer the same fate as Dementyeva as her achievements are questioned thanks to the absence of two of her rivals.  Is this placing of question marks part of a pattern?  Will we have any reliable indicator of the Russians' competitive form before the European Championships next year?

There is not much point in over-stating the Russian women's prospects at the up coming World Championships, but I do not believe they are as poor as many state, including Alexandrov.  Nevertheless, there are some benefits in building up slowly towards the Olympics.  A gymnastics team is only as good as its reserves; if a team cannot win without its leading performer, then the chance of leading the sport more than momentarily is pretty poor.  Injuries are to be expected and team training and selections should take this into account.  I would be surprised if they don't.

Interesting to see the women's team selection for EYOF.  I know that the two Anastasias were supposedly injured, but this was clearly a 'new generation' team, selected from Republics infrequently represented on national teams, with two girls from the same club.  These gymnasts were amongst the stand outs in the recent Spartakiade, but I wonder if there was any deliberate strategy involved?  I remember the excellent Ekaterina Privalova, who despite some rather good results at national competition repeatedly missed out on international assignments thanks to the impoverished state of her local republic.  Hopefully the wider geographical spread of home clubs represented by girls on the national team is an indication of wider reaching financial provision for the sport.  Putin has publicly nailed his colours to the post of sports funding and is expecting Olympic medals as part of a long term funding strategy to 2020.

I was quite surprised to read Alexandrov's rather calm dismissal of the Russian women's chances at Tokyo, supported by a statement that it's difficult to get the girls to work hard when there is little competition for a place on the team.  I agree to the extent that I do consider qualification for the Olympics to be the most important outcome of Worlds this year; but to admit that your team isn't really working as hard as it might is a bit of a weak admission, if that is what he is really saying.  Or perhaps there is some kind of subtle psychology going on that I don't understand. 

Let's hope that the upcoming Russian Cup will provide a few answers as to the form of Afanasyeva, Semenova, Nabieva, Dementyeva and Belokobylskaya.  With a revived Komova, this could form the core of the Russian team.  And it's not a bad one, is it?