Who will travel to Berne? A Russian mystery

Aliya Mustafina and team candidate Seda Tutkhalyan - both from Moscow

Five days left before the MAG European Championships open in Switzerland, and Russian gymnast Nikita Nagorny is posting videos of himself practicing a full twisting Roche vault - I wonder if he will compete it in Berne?  The men's team seems fairly well prepared and ready to travel as announced some weeks ago - Kuksenkov, Belyavski, Ignatyev, Nagorny, Ablyazin.  But the composition of the women's team, who will travel to their first major competition of 2016 next week, seems somewhat undecided.  Will Natalia Kapitonova make her major senior debut in June, or will Seda Tutkhalyan, her dynamic yet unpredictable rival, grace Russia's team?  Or will other gymnasts be brought into play; will further, unexpected, changes be made?

If head coach Valentina Rodionenko's recent announcement is to be believed, it is a simple case of replacing the injured Maria Paseka (a vault specialist) with Natalia Kapitonova (a strong bars worker who can also contribute on floor).  The basis of this decision, Rodionenko contends, is Kapitonova's strong performance at Russian nationals, where she placed 6th all around, 4th on bars and 5th on floor.

When one considers that Kapitonova's closest rival for a place on the team, Seda Tutkhalyan, secured  a gold on vault and silver all around at the same competition, it seems that the selection might not have been made on a purely straightforward basis according to the results.  Yes, Kapitonova has more predictable results.  This young girl from Penza is very stable and suffers few competition jitters.  On the other hand Tutkhalyan suffered a significant breakdown in event finals at nationals, to finish in last place on two of her best events, beam and floor.

At the same time, there is less risk in Kapitonova's routines - and less risk equals not only less potential, but also less pressure to force those errors.  Furthermore, Tutkhalyan's best moments come during team competition.  Look back to her amazing performance on beam in the European Games last year.  And since then, remember, Seda has added difficulty here (a full twisting double back pike dismount) and improved her uneven bars.  Her floor and vault are both better than they were.  Since coach Sergei Zelikson's appointment as tumbling coach at the national training centre, all of the Russian girls are landing their tumbles with more confidence, Seda as much as any, and her hard work and results add up to a significant scoring potential.

So I suppose it is fairly clear, I support Seda for a place on the Europeans team.  When you think of excitement and fury, when you remember Russia's tradition of innovation and risk, think of Tutkhalyan, because she has the potential to be one of Russia's strongest team players.  Alongside the brilliant Angelina Melnikova, she once again lights up Russia's ambitions in gymnastics.  Led by veteran fighter Aliya Mustafina, this team could look to be the type that is prepared to do battle.  Those who do not risk, cannot win.

But for the national coaches, any decision of who will make a team is far from straightforward.  They have to take into account the expectations of the Russian Ministry of Sport and the Russian Olympic Committee, who are increasingly looking to gymnastics to fill the reputation gap left by recent doping scandals in many of their leading sports.  This may well lead a preference for the more reliable gymnast, the one who enables the head coaches to predict results with greater accuracy.  This is important when predictions shape expectations and when failed expectations might disappoint powerful people.  There is also the need to balance the political scales internally as the various coaches and clubs of the gymnasts fight it out to see 'their' gymnast included on the team.

Aliya Mustafina comes from the CSKA club in Moscow.  Her personal trainer, Sergei Starkin, comes from the Burtasy Club in Penza.
Natalia Kapitonova trains at the same club in Penza where one of her personal coaches is Galina Starkina.
Seda Tutkhalyan and Daria Spiridonova both train at the same club in Moscow - Sambo.  Tutkhalyan's personal coach is Marina Ulyankina, Spiridonova is looked after by Tatiana Fomkina.
Ksenia Afanasyeva hails from Tula where she is trained by Marina Nazarova
Angelina Melnikova comes from Viktoria Komova's home club in Voronezh where she is coached by Sergei Denisovich

The relative pros and cons of each of these gymnasts are self evident to those of us who follow Russian gymnastics closely.  There are very fine judgements to be made, and only the coaches really know who is doing best.  The final decision will always be made at the last minute to exploit the possibilities of temporary changes in form; competition results are often only an indicator or a rough guide of who will make a team.

It is also true to say that in any situation working relationships and political dynamics will make a difference.  Personal coaches and clubs stand to gain from their gymnasts' performance on the national team, so it is worth their engaging in a degree of lobbying when team decisions are being made, and the relative power of the teams will at least partly determine who makes the final cut.  After all the brouhaha surrounding her coaching arrangements, I find it interesting that Mustafina is 'owned' not only by the long-standing and powerful CSKA (Central Army), but also by the rising stars of Russian gymnastics, the Burtasy Club in Penza.   Burtasy is not only strong on a sporting level, it also stands up well as an example of good management.  Head coach there, Valery Starkin (Sergei's father) has been elevated to a national training position on the Russian junior team, and his club has been commended and received  financial awards from the Russian Ministry of Sport to pay for improved equipment and the like.  Kapitonova's membership of the same team cannot count against her.

The Sambo club from Moscow is incredibly well represented on the national team (for example, Paseka is another one of their gymnasts) and their coaching team is very strong.  Marina Ulyankina, of course, will be remembered as supporting the Rodionenkos post London Olympics during their reshuffle of the Russian coaching team that left (CSKA baby) Alexander Alexandrov out in the cold, effectively demoted from his position as head coach of WAG.  Tatiana Fomkina has a long pedigree of top class gymnasts including the graceful Elena Anoshina.

It's natural that Moscow dominates the Russian WAG scene as for many years, during the post-Soviet era when sports funding was cut to a whisper, Moscow's local government was the only body paying much attention to gymnastics or giving it any money at all.  However, with competition for places so tight, and one other Muscovite already a 'lock', it is plain that taking two gymnasts from the same team may smack of favouritism.  Perhaps the Rodionenkos won't care about this; on the other hand they may wish to support the bubbling Penza club, and give Kapitonova a chance.

What decision will the Rodionenkos take?  Who, besides the core of Mustafina, Afanasyeva and Melnikova will travel to Berne?  The final decision is on a knife edge and will most likely be taken from between Tutkhalyan, Spiridonova and Kapitonova.  But will sport be the only consideration?