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As Valentina said, only Spiridonova and Tutkhalyan do AA in this model. Although things can always change ...
Pongo is my AI assistant. Read here his calculations of who might make the best Russian MAG team at the World Championships in October. Please do feel free to disagree audibly, in the comments and note that Pongo admits, even he makes mistakes. I don’t generally write such statistical material, so this may be a one off. With apologies for any errors, mine entirely and I wrote the brief. Yes. I’ve treated this as a genuine team-construction problem , rather than simply taking the six gymnasts with the highest AA scores. For the calculation I used the most recent strong competitive score available for each gymnast: the Spartakiad scores for Yakubov, Novikov and Kisel , and mainly European Championship team-final/final scores for Dukhno, Marinov, Zaika and Sieedin , supplemented by Russian Championship scores where a recent European score was not available. That matters because Dukhno and Marinov, for example, were substantially stronger in Zagreb than some earlier...
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ReplyDeleteWhy isn't Paseka competing all around instead of any of the other two? She has amazing vault, very good bars, decent floor -- is she that atrocious on beam?
ReplyDeleteYes, she is.
DeleteViktoria should've done the all around, she did amazing on all the other events in qual; she is currentlty Russia's best.
DeleteJust finished watching Russia. I can finally relax! Their team score is 3 points higher than their qual team score from last year. They did great. Paseka's vaults were her two best ever. Komova needs to get rid of the L turn on beam because she always wobbles and never connects it to the front aerial. Despite the wobble, the rest of her routine was BEAUTIFUL! The best part of today was watching her smile as she nailed her dismount. I also enjoyed Paseka and Afan give each other a "high five" as soon as Maria K finished her floor (she was the last one for Russia).
ReplyDeleteOverall, I was pretty impressed with the Russian team today and I think they will get silver or bronze in team final. My comments on individual gymnasts:
ReplyDelete(a) Afanasyeva: I am happy she qualified for fx final despite being sick, but she must improve her D score to 6.3 with her jump to have a chance of bronze, since there is no way she will beat either Biles or Raisman
(b) Komova: pretty impressed with her bars, but I feel she was grossly overscored on beam (did the judges see her huge lost of balance on the first turn? -- she still got 8.9 on execution!)
(c) Paseka: Her vault is unbelievable and I think she has a good chance of upsetting Biles in the final.
(d) Tutkhalyan: As always her floor is disappointing and she has no chance of an all-around medal, but she could medal on beam if she is lucky (no chance on vault)
(e) Spiridonova: As we know, only her bars stand out and she should medal there, but even top 10 all around would be a stretch.
(f) Kharenkova: honestly, I am sick of this gymnast. I thought she would be great when she was a junior but it is just not happening for her, and I feel she won't make it to Rio especially if Mustafina comes back.
But the big breaking news is that for the first time in History Romania will not be making it to the team final and will have to go to the test event. That must really hurt for them, especially for Larisa, who didn't qualify for a single ef and will barely make all around. Ouch, Russia suddenly doesn't look so bad after all.
It is sad not to have a Russian name really featuring in the all round after all the greats of the past but they have a shot at several EF medals at least.
It would be great to hear if anyone disagrees with my opinions!