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A hypothetical stance amid nerdy calculations. China come 8th, Holland third. Russia wins!

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Calculating scores using the 3-3 format of finals produces a slightly different finishing order than today.  China take bronze ahead of Britain, Japan takes fifth ahead of Italy, Netherlands jumps ahead of Canada.  It's a different competition and we will just have to see, but intriguing nonetheless.

USA.          46.966 44.649 43.198 44.198.    179.011

Russia.       45.433 45.566 43.432 41.599.    176.03

GBR.          44.865. 42.066 41.699. 43.2.       171.83

CHN.          44.698 43.298 42.033 42.133      172.162

ITA              44.024 40.699 41.699 42.465      168.887

JPN            43.933 41.699 41.599 42.766      169.997

CAN           43.8 41.999 41.516 41.266           168.581

NED            42.116 42.133 43.232 41.766.      169.247

I also worked out that without Biles, USA would stand marginally behind Russia.  A hypothetical stance I know.

USA B.        46.099  43.049  42.232  43.633     175.013

I thought it would be interesting to work out the execution scores standings.  These show an even bigger change, with NED leaping into third place from eighth, ITA moving up from fifth to fourth, GBR finishing fifth, and China dropping all the way to eighth.  Maybe somebody else wants to work out the scores from ninth downwards to see what the true standings are ...  

Of course China did have a very bad day.  I worked out Romania's E score and it was less than 3 points below China whose D scores saved the day for them.  I didn't see Romania's routines, but their e scores on uneven bars in particular seem brutal.  They competed in the first subdivision; surely scores crept upwards especially towards the later part of the second day.  But that can't account for it all.  Mistakes are mistakes but this looks like a hatchet job to me.  

USA.  28.566.  25.749. 25.532  26.066.     105.913

RUS   27.433.  26.266  25.532. 24.699.      103.93

GBR. 27.465.   24.066  25.166. 24.9.          101.597

CHN. 27.232.   23.332. 24.033  24.033.       98.63

ITA     27.624.   23.899  25.299  25.432      102.254

JPN.  27.333.   24.333  24.599. 25.266       101.531

CAN. 27.233.   24.266. 24.233. 24.766.      100.498

NED  26.816.    25.233. 26.032. 25.274       103.355

A calculator in my hands is a dangerous thing.  E&OE.

With thanks to Gymcastic for the picture of the scoreboard.


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Comments

  1. Anonymous25 October 2015 at 01:04

    It is interesting how close the teams would be if you take Biles out of the equation, or if you put Mustafina back in. Aliya probably would have added about 3 points to Russia's total from prelims.

    Rio TFs could be more exciting than I had originally thought...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MJ25 October 2015 at 03:31

      Funny how you want to take Biles out for the US and put in Mustafina for Russia. Hypothetical I know, but you guys need to sort out your praises when it's due. Even with major mistakes from the US they faired pretty well. It has nothing to do with mustafina being out.

      Delete
    2. Queen Elizabeth25 October 2015 at 05:46

      I don't think anyone is suggesting we are damping down praise for the Americans by the way! It has been a long time since the Russian team had all of its top competitors healthy at Worlds.
      I actually think that Komova is challenging Mustafina for the top Russian spot especially if she can regain her floor.
      I don't think Mustafina would have increased the team score by as much as three. She would just have given them more depth everywhere, matching Tutkhalyan on vault, perhaps giving a little extra on bars, more assurance on beam and then on floor - hopefully - adding about a point. Russia has really made great strides everywhere except floor - and the jury is out as to their reliability in finals. We will find out how they are doing there on Tuesday.

      Delete
  2. Katie A.25 October 2015 at 01:55

    Romania counted four falls on UB.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous25 October 2015 at 03:33

    I doubt mustafina can add 3 points to their preliminary scores. That's like saying biles can add 9 additional points for the US if she hits all her connections.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Queen Elizabeth25 October 2015 at 05:38

    Somebody commented about the number of Romania falls on bars, and the number China suffered. I hit the delete button on my phone by mistake - please could you recomment? Apologies?
    Have you seen the ROM E scores on bars? In the 6s!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Unknown25 October 2015 at 05:51

    Conclusion for this theory: Russia will win Team Final if each 3 of them hits their routine just like qualification. Biles need to out of competition and Raisman need to fall from bar and Douglas from Beam.
    Wel, how about increase difficulty and better execution and challenge USA just like 2010 and 2012. 2012 was really knocked out though

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous25 October 2015 at 06:15

    One question is did the Russian girls feel more responsible because Mustafina was not there?
    They can be happy with beam and bars, where they could place 3 gymnasts in the first 8. Of course only 2 will compete.
    Paseka has been a surprise. She has become so consistent!
    Anybody has an explanation about Russian floor?








    Russian coaches should do everything they can to improve vault (Kharenkova and Spiri) and do something about floor. What's the problema with floor? Anybody can explain?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Queen Elizabeth25 October 2015 at 07:57

      I wish somebody could explain. It is heartbreaking to see the general decline in the quality of floor exercises. I wonder if in general the girls just do not have the right tough physique to combine aggressive tumbling on the floor with great technique and lightness on the bars ... The injury rate bothers me too. Any thoughts?

      This is a key question by the way, not just in Russia but internationally. Thanks for raising it.

      Delete
    2. Julia25 October 2015 at 16:49

      The Dutch team currently combines less difficult tumbling with very difficult and beautiful dance elements that are well executed and add up to competitive D scores. Could be a road to consider for the Russians; however, Nastia Liukin was a masterful bar worker that found a floor routine that worked for her. I think it's a matter of a.) improving overall conditioning for all the Russian athletes b.) focusing on finding skills that work the Code to best advantage that the athletes can execute well.

      Delete
    3. Queen Elizabeth25 October 2015 at 17:19

      I agree about the conditioning! Although I do not think they are as bad as many people say - they are still second in the world, after all.
      Nastia Liukin was competing in a different era - and there is the rub. Floor was a different kettle of fish even only if it was a few years ago.
      What the NED girls have done is terrific - just think how much better they would do if the Code were more appreciative of their artistry. Mustafina used a similar approach last year - Omelianchik wrote a journal article about the idea. But without top level acro it is difficult to tally the very highest d scores. I hope that Sanne and Lieke do well in their finals.

      Delete
  7. Anonymous25 October 2015 at 06:42

    I was a little confused by the e-scores in the qualifying rounds. I know viktoria komova normally has wonderful execution on bars but in qualifying she made two obvious errors and yet ended up with a higher e score than both Daria and Maria Pseaka ? Also I think her difficulty on bars was only 6.5 , do you think she will have higher d score for uneven bars finals ?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Anonymous25 October 2015 at 06:54

    Mustafina can of course add 3 points to Russia Qualification.

    Let's take Daria out, regardless of her UB big score. Her Qual score is 54+, and it's beyond doubt that Musty can bring 57+ score tbh. That said, I am not trying to say that Russia can challege US for gold even with Aliya in the team.

    I hope she can challenge biles individually in AA though, with VT: 5.8, UB: 7.0, BB: 6.3 and FX: 6.3, which is possible to her. QE do you think she can bring back this high UB d score?

    ReplyDelete
  9. Anonymous26 October 2015 at 17:20

    Spiridonova's VT & FX scores were not counted in the team total, so Mustafina would add less than the difference in their AA scores.

    ReplyDelete

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